Oil is no longer insulated from the volatile situation in the Middle East. After weeks of stagnation, with crude prices at their lowest point in almost three years, Iran’s involvement in the conflict has rekindled fears that regional tensions could trigger Israeli strikes on Iranian oil facilities or provoke Tehran to attack Saudi oil fields or refineries, as happened in September 2019. The most alarming scenario would be the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for one-fifth of the world’s crude oil.