Anja Mihr is a political scientist based in Germany and Kyrgyzstan, which happens to be next door to China, where she is no longer welcome—it is worth a look at a map. Her research focuses on Eurasia, so she was an ideal interviewer for The Mint about China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Is it about development or domination? Or maybe both?  A conversation with Anja suggested it was even more complicated.

Key points

Origins and Evolution of the Belt and Road Initiative

• Announced by Xi Jinping in 2012-2013 as a development strategy
• Officially launched in Astana, Kazakhstan in 2013, signalling a focus on Eurasia
• Evolved from development to modernisation of infrastructure in neighbouring countries
• Six main corridors were established, with a land corridor through Central Asia being the most important
• Total investment of approximately $4 trillion, mainly within China and neighbouring regions

China’s Changing Role in the Region

• Shifted from purely economic player to security actor
• Filling the power vacuum left by Russia in former Soviet regions
• Establishing military bases and increasing security presence in Central Asia
• Growing cynophobia (anti-Chinese sentiment) in some countries due to unfulfilled development promises

Soft Power and Cultural Influence

• Rapid expansion of Confucius Institutes across Eurasia
• Extensive scholarship programs for students from BRI countries
• Focus on teaching Chinese language and culture
• Creating a network of interpreters and interlocutors loyal to Chinese interests

Security Concerns and Local Resistance

• Instances of sabotage and protests against Chinese projects in Central Asia
• Chinese pressure on local governments to suppress dissent
• Fortification of Chinese facilities and increased presence of Chinese security personnel
• Establishment of China’s first foreign military base in Tajikistan

Parallels with Historical Empires

• Similarities to European colonial expansion patterns
• Potential for overextension and future challenges
• China’s involvement in low-intensity conflicts in Myanmar, Central Asia, and Afghanistan

Future Implications

• Potential prioritisation of investments and projects as challenges arise
• Possible withdrawal from some European investments
• Continued focus on maintaining stability within China as the primary goal
• Speculation about China’s role in ongoing conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine

Next Steps

• Monitor China’s evolving role in security and development across Eurasia
• Observe potential shifts in China’s investment priorities in Europe and elsewhere
• Track the expansion of China’s soft power initiatives and their impact on local populations
• Analyse the long-term sustainability of China’s Belt and Road strategy