The US-Israeli war on Iran has wrought havoc on global gas markets. It’s just the latest shock in the energy world after the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine similarly sent gas prices soaring to several times pre-Covid levels. Back then, the impact of gas in driving electricity prices amplified the macroeconomic shock and inflation; energy bills rose to the top of the political agenda and Liz Truss’s desperate policy response helped finish off her brief time in office.
As that crisis subsided, a new narrative about energy bills emerged: that high prices were increasingly due to the cost of transitioning away from fossil fuels. Reform UK championed climate scepticism. The Tories tried to soothe their warring factions by saying that a 2050 net zero target was too soon, while acknowledging that it is required to stabilise the atmosphere. In Labour, Ed Miliband continued to push for the UK’s ambitious climate goals but became the chief bogeyman for much of the right-wing press, and found himself under pressure on all sides. Meanwhile, the Tony Blair Institute (TBI) added fuel to the fire by saying in 2025 that the world should shift its “focus and resources” from renewables (highlighting nuclear and carbon capture for fossil fuels); and in February 2026 by declaring that the UK’s Clean Power goal for 2030 was too ambitious, too soon, and getting in the way of longer-term reforms. Again, the implication was that the move away from gas should be slowed.
Then came the Iran war, which has once again driven up oil and gas prices and inflation, adding to the strain on household budgets—including the two million UK families struggling with energy debt totalling around £5bn. Projections for bills from July onwards have shot up—in some cases by 22 per cent for gas and 7 per cent for electricity. The pause in fighting declared on 8th April has brought only limited relief and may not last, while damage to energy infrastructure in the Middle East, and heightened costs and risks, are already baked in to future energy prices.
