Paul Ekins warns of the need for low-carbon-economy policymakers to consider the full circle.

Many of the technologies seen as critical for the shift to low-carbon energy, as well as for digitalisation, require considerably greater quantities of previously little-used metals than their high-carbon counterparts. Demand for these carbon-reduction metals is expected to increase six-fold by 2030 and seven-fold by 2050, while for lithium, European Union (EU) demand is expected to increase twelve-fold by 2030 and twenty-one-fold by 2050. This outlook is reflected in the EU’s Critical Raw Materials (CRM) Act, which was finally approved in late 2023.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that, while a normal-sized conventional car uses about 30kg of copper and manganese, an equivalent electric car requires some 75kg of those metals plus quantities of lithium, nickel, cobalt and graphite. An electric SUV needs three to four times as much of these metals again, because of the need for a larger battery. Similarly, wind turbines, solar photovoltaic panels and fuel cells all require metals that, before the advent of these technologies, were produced in relatively small quantities. This will need to change dramatically if technologies requiring these metals are to replace the use of fossil fuels.

Years of colonial extraction, and the experience of some mining since then, has made them very wary of proposed mining projects on their lands.

The minerals from which these metals are derived need to be mined. This raises important questions about whether mining can reduce its environmental and social impacts on, and give sufficient economic benefit to, the countries and communities that will need to host these mines, to win their acceptance of an expansion of mining on their territories.

Many of these countries and communities are in the Global South, in which years of colonial extraction, and the experience of some mining since then, has made them very wary of proposed mining projects on their lands. A glance at the Environmental Justice Atlas shows the hundreds of conflicts related to the mining of minerals and metals, many of them located down the Andes in Latin America, which is a key region for the prospective mining of the minerals that contain the metals needed in renewable energy generation.

The desire to reduce the negative environmental impacts from mining, and to reduce importing countries’ dependence on distant and potentially vulnerable supply chains, raises the question of whether it will be possible to move towards a circular economy in these metals, as the stock of them is built up with the growing deployment of the technologies which use them.

This is clearly possible in principle but there are many obstacles to realising it in practice. These metals may become ubiquitous but only in very small quantities in any particular

By 2040 recycling and reuse will supply only 10% of the cobalt, nickel, lithium and copper required by batteries in a 2oC emission reduction scenario.

product. This makes their recovery at the product end-of-life through recycling both difficult and expensive. It may also require new smelting technologies and factories, which are energy-intensive, and, like mining itself, not popular in the communities nearby.

The IEA estimates that by 2040 recycling and reuse will supply only 10% of the cobalt, nickel, lithium and copper required by batteries in a 2oC emission reduction scenario. Other circular economy approaches will be required if the need for large quantities of virgin minerals is to be reduced.

These other circular economy approaches have been summarised as: refuse, rethink, reduce, re-use, repair, refurbish, re-manufacture and repurpose.

There is considerable scope for the determined application of these strategies to reduce the demand for minerals for low-carbon energy technologies, which could also reduce the demand for other materials. But implementation of these strategies requires the determined application of public policy, which has so far been conspicuously lacking in most countries, despite the growing volume of policymaker rhetoric in favour of a circular economy. So these strategies remain very under-used.

Electric cars provide a good example of how policy works against circular strategies. “Refuse, rethink and reduce” imply a fundamental change in the relationship between humans and their cars. In urban areas more people could get around without cars if policy makers prioritised infrastructure for active travel (walking and cycling) and public transport, and restricted vehicle speed, access and parking. The volume of cars could be further reduced if more people shared vehicles through car clubs. The quantities of materials required for electric cars would be much reduced by a reversal of the trend towards bigger and bigger cars (SUVs).

However, all policy approaches to encourage these developments are vigorously contested politically by those for whom large cars have become essential to their mobility, status and very identity. The IEA in its Net Zero Emissions scenario assumed that there would be two billion cars on the world’s roads by 2050 – that would be about 200 cars per 1,000 people at current rates of population growth. But the USA has 800 cars per 1,000 people, and many countries seem to be moving in that direction, along with the trend for ever-larger cars. Reducing this rate of vehicle growth and reversing the trend in their size, is probably the single biggest challenge to limiting the quantity of carbon-reduction minerals required.

Attempts to introduce circular economy measures have, so far, shown that policymakers struggle to implement these approaches effectively.

In addition to the demand for carbon-reduction metals in cars, they will remain essential for many other low-carbon uses. So it is essential that wind turbines and other renewable energy products are designed for easy re-use, repair, and remanufacturing, before recycling is considered. However, attempts to introduce circular economy measures have, so far, shown that policymakers struggle to implement these approaches effectively. They will need to find ways to do so if waste streams are not to contain growing amounts of low-carbon energy products that are hard and expensive to recycle, in a repeat of the experience with waste electrical and electronic equipment.

Whatever the success of these circular economy strategies, the shift to low-carbon energy is going to need an enormous expansion of mining and processing. The twin priorities, if decarbonisation is not to cause a host of other environmental and social problems, are that mining greatly improves its environmental and social outcomes, and that policymakers act to ensure that the fruits of mining stay in the economy through the enactment of circular economy policies. Failure on either or both of these priorities could result in shortages of vital minerals that would slow the move to low-carbon energy and put even the 2oC Paris temperature target beyond reach.

Paul Ekins

Paul is a British academic in the field of sustainable economics, currently Professor of Resources and Environment Policy at University College London leading the Institute for Sustainable Resources. He was …

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