The death of Queen Elizabeth II could be the blow that sends the United Kingdom’s already-strained economy into a “technical recession,” according to one economic projection, as some Canadians also ring warning bells about the effect of a national holiday on the country’s businesses.

The forecast follows economic data released earlier this week, which showed the U.K.’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth was weaker than expected in July.

With the British economy already contracting in the second quarter of the year, another consecutive quarter of decline would push the country into a recession, by some economists’ definitions.

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